003/.54 22 Q375.T35 2007 Preceded by Followed by The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable events — and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the. The book covers subjects relating to knowledge,, as well as ways of life, and uses elements of fiction and anecdotes from the author's life to elaborate his theories. The book spent 36 weeks on the The book is part of Taleb's five volume series, titled the Incerto including (2001), The Black Swan (2007–2010), (2010–2016), (2012), and (2018). Contents • • • • • • • • • Coping with Black Swan events [ ] A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build to negative events and an ability to exploit positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models.
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The book asserts that a 'Black Swan' event depends on the observer, e.g., what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Free jodha akbar mp3 download. Hence the objective should be to 'avoid being the turkey', by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to 'turn the Black Swans white'. Summary [ ] Taleb refers to the book variously as an essay or a narrative with one single idea: 'our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations.'